Last season three players tied for the Premier League Golden Boot. Mo Salah, Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all scored 22 goals to top the winner’s list.
Fast forward to the 2019/20 season and it doesn’t look like any of them will be able to retain the title. Instead, Jamie Vardy for Leicester City is leading the way in terms of goals scored. At the time of writing this piece, he is sitting on 17 goals, with Sergio Aguero on 16 goals. Yet, despite Vardy’s tally, he is not the bookmakers favourite to win the Golden Boot – Aguero is!
There isn’t much between them in the odds with Aguero on 6/4 and Vardy on 11/4. Slightly behind them on 14 goals scored is Mo Salah for Liverpool. His odds are 4/1 but with Liverpool is such fantastic form, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him quickly catch up to his rivals.
Golden Boot Favourites for the 2019/20 Season
1. Sergio Aguero 6/4
2. Jamie Vardy 11/4
3. Mo Salah 4/1
4. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 10/1
5. Danny Ings 14/1
Let’s take a closer look at the performances of each player from last season.
The bookies favourite this year, Aguero missed out on the Golden Boot by one goal last season. Always a top goal scorer for Manchester City, he is currently on 16 goals from just 19 appearances. That is a hefty .84 goals per match.
So while he has a better scoring rate than his nearest rival, Jamie Vardy, he isn’t playing in as many games. That is largely due to an injury he sustained in December which ruled him out for a few weeks.
If he successfully plays in the remaining 13 games, he could add another 11 goals to his tally. That would take him to 27 goals, pipping Vardy to the post.
The Leicester City player missed out on the Golden Boot in the 2018/19 season when the 18 goals he scored fell short of the mark. They were scored over 34 Premier League appearances but this season he has found form again and his 17 goals to date have come from just 23 games. It’s an increase from .53 goals per match to .74.
Using those statistics, he could conceivably score another 9 goals before the Premier League season comes to a close. That would put him on 26 goals but of course, nothing is guaranteed.
A joint Golden Boot winner last season, Mo Salah may have to relinquish his crown at the end of the 2019/20 Premier League. Missing three games, he has played in 22 for Liverpool but only scored 14 goals to date. His scoring rate has improved from .58 goals per game last season to .64 this season but that’s still less than both Aguero and Vardy.
He could potentially bag another 8 goals giving him 22 in total – same as last season, but that still wouldn’t be enough.
Also on 14 goals so far this season, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been a stalwart of the Arsenal team. His scoring rate hasn’t changed at all so he is still hitting the back of the net at a rate of .61 goals per game.
That means he could end up on 22 yet again, but it wouldn’t be enough to retain the Golden Boot title.
The Southampton striker played in 25 games last season and scored 14 goals. That is exactly the same so far this season – 25 appearances, 14 goals. However, this time around he has the advantage of possibly playing in 13 more games. If he keeps scoring, it would effectively double his strike rate from .29 goals per game last season to .56 this time around.
On that basis, there are possibly a few more goals to come from Ings. If he keeps up his .56 rate, he could add another 8 to total, ending the season on 22 goals.
So even though Jamie Vardy is currently leading the pack for the Golden Boot on goals, the odds reflect the rate at which these players are actually scoring them. Aguero scores more per game and with 13 games left in the season, he could potentially bag more overall and therefore win the 2019/20 Premier League Golden Boot.
If however, you think one or two players are capable of beating him, you can always take your chances with the bookies. The odds will change as the season draws to a close so don’t miss out. Most bookmakers will offer each-way bets so even if your player doesn’t win, if he places second or third, they will still pay out 1/5 of the odds.